Obama vs. the economy

 

As the candidates seeking the US presidency gear up for the 2012 presidential elections, the focus is all on the economy and who is best equipped to fix it.

A television spot for Republican candidate Mitt Romney shows a series of images of foreclosed homes and shuttered factories, claiming President Barack Obama has failed to fix the faltering economy.

The issue is clearly at the forefront of voters' minds, with 95 per cent of Americans 'concerned' that the economy will slip back into recession, according to a recent Zogby poll.

The race for president is likely to dominate US headlines for most of 2012. The first in a series of state-by-state intra-party contests to determine who will face Obama for the centre-right Republicans will be held in early January.

The past year has seen the Republican candidates vying for position - with a series of frontrunners soaring and then fading.

And no matter which Republican is ultimately victorious, there will be little question that Obama's real foe will be the economy. No president has won reelection with unemployment above 7.2 per cent since Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1940.

Former Massachusetts governor Romney has long been considered the opposition party's heir apparent, after a strong showing in the last nominating cycle. But conservatives have been reluctant to rally behind him, instead turning their attention to a procession of other candidates and even potential candidates.

The cover of Time magazine this week features a photo of Romney with the caption, 'Why don't they like me?'

The answers to that question are varied, but one frequent refrain is the health care reform that Romney initiated as Massachusetts governor, and that Obama later used as a blueprint for his national plan. The Republicans, including Romney, have vowed to repeal the plan, which they say infringes on Americans' rights and hampers business growth.

'I have said repeatedly that the race is Mitt Romney's to lose. It looks like he just might lose it,' wrote conservative blogger Erick Erickson. 'The race is Romney's to lose because the race has settled against his favour. The race has settled in 'Not Romney's' favour.'

In the final weeks before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, which kick off the voting season, former speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich has surged into the lead in opinion surveys - and won a key endorsement from a major newspaper in New Hampshire.

'America is at a crucial crossroads,' wrote the Union-Leader newspaper. 'It is not going to be enough to merely replace Barack Obama next year. We are in critical need of the innovative, forward-looking strategy and positive leadership that Gingrich has shown he is capable of providing.'

Polls show Gingrich with a substantial lead in Iowa, and Romney with an equally large lead in New Hampshire.

Gingrich's sudden rise has worried the Romney camp, but Obama's Democrats seem to think they will face Romney in November general elections. They have already released an ad targeting him for flip-flopping - changing his position on a number of issues.

The Zogby poll shows Obama's job approval rating has improved, but he remains tied with both Romney and Gingrich in potential election face-offs.

And though the economy is not in Obama's favour, he has been busy pushing a variety of initiatives, from job creation programmes to payroll tax cuts, in a series of appearances in states that will be key in next year's elections.

'All I can say is, hold on, it's going to be a bumpy ride, and not just through the Republican primary,' pollster Corry Schiermeyer of Zogby writes.

She points to the threat of rising petrol prices, the 9-per-cent unemployment rate and other uphill battles for Obama.

If the U.S. economy stays sour, President Obama will have an even more disgruntled electorate, and a tougher time to convince voters to reelect him, even if the Republicans can't figure out who to nominate or nominate a less than spectacular candidate. 

- DPA